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For a brief period, the former US president gave the impression to adopt a firm position regarding Ukraine. After delivering threats of "serious ramifications" in August if Vladimir Putin carried on obstructing truce negotiations, he ultimately imposed major sanctions on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move significantly affected the Russian leader's ability to finance his military invasion in the region.

But, through his latest comprehensive peace proposal for Ukraine, reportedly drafted by American and Russian representatives lacking Ukrainian or EU involvement, the former president has apparently reverted to his favorable to Russia position.

Benefiting Invasion

This plan would effectively reward the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while placing the country's democratic system in peril. Despite ringing declarations that "The nation's sovereignty will be confirmed", large portions of the plan in reality compromise that same independence. What represents a Moscow's wish would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his corporate experience, Trump seems to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a mere land disagreement, as if ceding Russia a section of Ukraine's soil will satisfy the president. Yet, Putin's military campaign is not merely about dominating a destroyed area of economically weakened land in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious desire to destroy it so it ceases to serves as an appealing example for the Russia's population of the democratic government that his deepening authoritarian rule prevents them.

Territorial Concessions

While maintaining in position the presently split oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's plan would compel Ukraine to surrender all of Donetsk province. Aside from benefiting Russia with land that its military have been unable to seize in exceeding a lengthy period of conflict, this surrender would leave Ukrainian defenses critically weakened.

Donetsk is the location of Ukraine's well-known "fortress belt", the well-established defensive positions that constitute a key barrier to enemy progress. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these positions, giving Putin a unobstructed route to Kyiv in case he eventually opt to renew the hostilities.

Defense Reductions

Furthermore, in a move that would facilitate additional hostilities easier for the Russian military, the plan would require the nation to cut the numbers of its troops from their present large number soldiers to a limit of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's plan sets no such limits on the invading army.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to depict the nation's chosen by the people leadership as radicals, the plan states: "All radical doctrine and activities must be opposed and banned." Seemingly to emphasize this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Trump sets no obligation that Putin endanger his regime by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Defense Commitments

Admittedly, the plan has Russia pledge not to "enter bordering nations" and to "establish in law its policy of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". However considering that the Russian leadership has broken similar agreements in the past – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government pledged to respect the nation's borders in exchange for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a restoration of captured territory in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – for what reason should we believe Putin on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western defense commitments. Although the plan warns of a "strong unified armed reaction" in case the Russian Federation resume its invasion, and provides that "The nation will receive dependable security guarantees", the particulars include vague to alarming. The initiative would not just deny Ukraine accession to NATO but also prevent alliance nations from stationing forces on Ukrainian territory, thus precluding the reassurance force, presumptively led by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to prevent Putin from restoring his diminished forces, re-equipping, and attacking again.

Global Reaction

An additional side agreement apparently would grant the nation with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any later "major, planned, and continuous military assault" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an attack threatening the stability and safety of the Western nations." That suggests a armed reaction. But different from a powerful national defense – the nation's primary deterrent against renewed invasion – the effectiveness of the side agreement would depend on the willingness of alliance members, such as Trump, to respond with force to Russia's hostilities, a response they have {not