The Way Donald Trump Secured a Gaza Breakthrough Which Escaped Joe Biden
At first, Israel's aerial attack on the Hamas negotiating team in Qatar appeared like yet another intensification that drove the prospect of a ceasefire out of reach.
The attack on September 9 breached the territorial integrity of an American ally and threatened expanding the hostilities into a broader regional conflict.
Negotiations appeared to be collapsing.
However, it turned out to be a pivotal event that has led in a deal, declared by Donald Trump, to release all remaining hostages.
This is a goal that he, and Joe Biden previously, had pursued for almost 24 months.
This marks just the initial phase towards a more durable peace, and the specifics of Hamas disarmament, Gaza governance and complete Israeli pullout are still to be worked out.
Yet if this deal holds, it could be Trump's signature achievement of his return to office - one that escaped Biden and his diplomatic team.
Trump's distinct approach and crucial relationships with the Israeli government and the Arab world appear to have played a role in this breakthrough.
But, as with many diplomatic achievements, there were also elements at play beyond the control of both leaders.
A Close Relationship Which Eluded Biden
In public, Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are all smiles.
Trump likes to say that Israel has no greater ally, and Netanyahu has described Trump as Israel's "most supportive friend in the US presidency". Moreover these warm words have been backed up by actions.
Throughout his first presidential term, the president moved the US embassy in Israel from its former location to the contested capital and discarded a long-held US position that Jewish communities in the Palestinian West Bank are against international law, the position under international law.
When Israel began its air strikes against the Islamic Republic in the summer, the US leader ordered American aircraft to strike the nation's atomic sites with its most powerful conventional bombs.
These visible shows of support may have given the president the leeway to apply more pressure on the Israeli government in private. According to reports, Trump's negotiator, Steve Witkoff, pressured Netanyahu in late 2024 into agreeing to a halt in fighting in return for the release of some hostages.
After Israel launched strikes against Syrian forces in July, including bombing a Christian church, the US president pressured Netanyahu to alter tactics.
The leader exhibited a degree of determination and pressure on an Israeli prime minister that is virtually unprecedented, according to an analyst of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "It's unheard of of an US leader literally telling an Israeli prime minister that they must agree or else."
Joe Biden's connection with the Israeli administration was always more strained.
The Biden team's "bear hug approach" argued that the US had to embrace the nation publicly in order to allow it to influence the nation's war conduct behind closed doors.
Underneath this was the president's nearly half-century of backing for the state, as well as sharp divisions within his Democratic coalition over the conflict in Gaza. Each move Biden took endangered dividing his own domestic support, while his successor's loyal conservative voters gave him more room to manoeuvre.
Ultimately, domestic politics or individual ties may have had less importance than the simple fact that, during his term, the Israeli government was not ready to reach an agreement.
Several months into his new administration, with Iran chastened, Hezbollah to its immediate north greatly diminished and the coastal strip in ruins, every one of its key military goals had been achieved.
Commercial Background Helped Secure Gulf's Backing
The Israeli missile attack in Doha, which resulted in the death of a Qatari citizen but no Hamas officials, led Trump to deliver an ultimatum to the prime minister. The war had to end.
Trump had given the Israeli military a relatively free hand in Gaza. The president lent American military might to Israel's campaign in the neighboring country. But an attack on Qatar soil was a different matter completely, pushing him towards the Arab position on how best to conclude the conflict.
A number of Trump officials have told the press that this was a turning point which galvanised the leader to apply maximum pressure to get a peace deal done.
This US president's close ties with the Arab monarchies are well documented. He has business dealings with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. He began each of his administrations with state visits to the kingdom. This year, Trump also stopped in Doha and the UAE capital.
The president's normalization agreements, which established ties between the Jewish state and several Muslim states, including the UAE, was the biggest diplomatic achievement of his first term.
His visits devoted in the capitals of the Gulf region earlier this year helped shift his perspective, says an expert of the a policy institute. The US president did not travel to the country on this Middle East trip but went to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar where the leader received consistent appeals to bring an end to the conflict.
Within weeks after that Israeli strike on Doha, Trump was present nearby as Netanyahu himself phoned the Qatari leadership to apologise. And later that day, the prime minister gave approval on Trump's 20-point peace plan for the territory - one that also had the support of influential Arab states in the area.
If Trump's alliance with Netanyahu gave him the ability to influence Israel to reach an agreement, his past with Muslim leaders may have secured their support, and helped them convince the group to agree to the deal.
"A key factor that evidently occurred was that President Trump developed influence with the Israeli government, and indirectly with Hamas," notes an analyst of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"This was crucial. His ability to do this on his own schedule, and avoid yielding to the desires of the warring sides has been a challenge that lot of previous presidents have faced, and Trump seems to handle with some success."
The reality that Trump is far better liked in the nation than the prime minister himself was leverage that he used to his benefit, he adds.
Currently Israel has agreed to releasing more than 1,000 detainees imprisoned in Israeli prisons and has agreed to a limited pullback from the strip.
The group will free all the captives still held, living and dead, captured in the original 7 October assault, which caused the loss of more than 1,200 Israeli citizens.
A conclusion to the war, which has led to the destruction of the territory and the fatalities of more than 67,000 {Palestinians|Pal