‘The Situation is Dire’: Conflict on Iran Tightens India's Cooking-Gas Availability.

The ripple effects of a military engagement being fought nearly a significant distance away are now impacting India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, supplies of cooking gas are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to shorten food lists, shorten hours and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is filled with video clips showing crowds outside fuel suppliers across Indian metros and localities as anxieties over fuel supplies spread. Commercial LPG users appear the hardest struck: the sharpest squeeze is in food service establishments.

"Conditions are critical. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a representative of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most food outlets run either on commercial LPG cylinders or direct gas lines, and the scarcities are now being noticed across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the south. People are turning to traditional burners and electric cookers to keep kitchens going."

Localized Effects

In a western metro, accounts say up to a 20% of eateries are already operating at reduced capacity as cylinder availability tighten. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some restaurants say their cylinder inventory have depleted with minimal reserves. "We can only make coffee and no other dishes - it is nothing less than pathetic. Businesses are going to suffer," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are seeking alternatives. "Food options are being cut, some are skipping midday meals and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are fluctuating as supplies ebb and flow. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers report a spike in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Authority's View

Yet, the authorities maintains there is adequate supply.

India has more than 300 million household consumers and spokespersons say stocks are being prioritized to households as geopolitical strain from the Middle East conflict affect energy markets.

Roughly six out of ten of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about the vast majority of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic bottleneck now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.

The relevant department says that it directed refineries to increase LPG output for home needs, enhancing domestic production by about 25%. Business-grade fuel is being allocated for vital industries such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Some panic booking and accumulation has been triggered by misinformation. The standard supply timeline for home fuel remains about 60 hours," says a government spokesperson.

Widening Concern

Now the anxiety is extending beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of two-wheelers outside a fuel station. "The panic is real," the caption reads.

According to data from market experts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be exaggerated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its crude oil. Around 50% of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the shortfall could be partly made up by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a sector expert.

Based on shipping data and industry information, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The key weakness is LPG, experts note.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the chokepoint.

Refineries can modify output to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only increase domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be partially mitigated through varied suppliers. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable. LPG availability is the real variable to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the concern on the ground is not just scarcity but erratic supply chains - and the common threat of stockpiling.

An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.

"Suppliers are taking advantage of the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's energy imports may be buffered by international market dynamics. But in restaurants across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next refill.