Moving from Grudging Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A unexpected operation on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its plan to rule indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”