Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Process

A number of members on the party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.