🔗 Share this article

Well. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to together address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his administration managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, civil society is essential at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the best chance available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.